When it comes to contract extensions for NFL quarterbacks, the offseason between years 3 and 4 is when teams tend to ink their promising young quarterbacks to a first big extension.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Houston’s Deshaun Watson, Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and former Los Angeles Rams and current Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff all signed after their third year.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is expected to be extended sometime this offseason. On the heels of an MVP-caliber performance in 2020, the contract figures could be quite large for the former 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.
During a recent appearance on the Howard and Jeremy show on WGR Sports Radio 550 in Buffalo, Spotrac.com managing editor Michael Ginnitti discussed Allen’s looming deal and explained why he believes it could be a mixture between what Mahomes signed in 2020 and what Goff signed a year before that.
“I actually think there might be a mix of Patrick Mahomes and a mix of Jared Goff into this Josh Allen contract,” said Ginnitti, who runs Spotrac.com, one of the best NFL salary cap resources on the web. “I think it might be a very long term contract. So if he’s got two years left, let’s tack on 5 or 6 more and make 2021 and 2022 pretty much cap neutral so that the salary cap figures on the first two years barely move. Basically what Patrick Mahomes has done in Kansas City.”
Mahomes signed the richest deal in sports history when he agreed to a 10-year, $503 million extension with the Chiefs. Goff’s extension was for four years and $134 million, but the way the deal was structured made it possible for the Rams to trade him last week to acquire former Detroit signal caller Matthew Stafford. Both Mahomes’ and Goff’s deals put the big money down the road of the contract to help the Chiefs and Rams build their roster without entering a difficult cap situation with the quarterbacks still on their rookie deal window.
In the case of Allen - who Ginnitti thinks will get even more money than Watson ($39 million annual), Goff ($33.5 million annual), or Wentz ($32 million annual) - the Bills are looking at roughly $41 million per season, which would equal about a five-year $205 million extension or a six-year $246 million extension.
“I’m actually really happy that this Goff, Wentz situation is happening right now preceding the Josh Allen contract, because there’s a real discussion to have about structuring these contracts,” Ginnitti said. “Wentz’s contract is structured in a way that is absolute immobile, and as we just saw, Jared Goff was not.”
Wentz is coming off a bad season for the Eagles and reportedly would like to move on from the team. Problem for him is that the team likely won’t get back enough in a deal after Wentz threw for only 16 touchdowns, 15 interceptions on 57% passing and a quarterback rating less than 50 in 2020.
Allen was the complete opposite last season in terms of production. He broke eight single season passing records and finishing with 46 total touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, engineering the no. 2-ranked passing offense in the NFL.
Wentz is a former MVP candidate himself before injuries and regression spoiled the party in Philadelphia. Ginnitti said that there’s a system in place for teams to avoid paying their young quarterback before the end of his rookie deal, fifth-year option, and even a franchise tag or two.
“I’ve been banging this drum for awhile. Who’s going to be the team that doesn’t pay the quarterback at all, let alone early? Who just rides out the contract and a couple of franchise tags and then turns it over to a new quarterback,” he asked. “But what I always come back to, and why the gamble is generally worth it: wouldn’t you want to gamble on a 24-year-old more than a 27-year-old, based on money and guaranteed dollars? I think that’s just generally how (GMs and teams) look at it.”
Bills general manager Brandon Beane spoke last week about the potential Allen extension this offseason. He reiterated that he doesn’t like discussing deals in the media, but on WGR he did say it’s possible, even with the expected salary cap reduction because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“I think we can make something fit. Without getting into how we would do it, I think there are ways we could make it fit,” Beane said. “I’m looking forward to here real soon, hopefully in the next few weeks, finding out what this cap is going to be. Or at least close to what it will be so we can start looking at some of our pending free agents. But there are ways we can do it and we’ll have to be creative with it for sure based on our current cap situation. But I definitely think it can be done.”
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