Agencies
Joe Biden will meet his Afghan counterpart Ashraf Ghani and National Reconciliation Chairman Abdullah Abdullah this week to do some hand-holding as the Taliban continue their violent sweep across Afghanistan gaining tactical advantage by the day. Ghani and Abdullah will appear ‘together’ at the White House — the Biden administration wanted a public show of Afghan unity.
Ghani reportedly wanted to come by himself, but was overruled. Afghan unity is critical, but many leaders seem to resent Ghani more than the Taliban. The delegation will include three women to signal that rights of women and girls matter.
The Friday meeting is meant to highlight the ‘enduring partnership’ as the US military draws down and the Taliban thumb their noses at the peace agreement. The Pakistanis huff and puff, unable to decide if Osama bin Laden was a terrorist or a martyr, while trying to extract the best price from Washington.
Yes, the Americans are really leaving this time. Everyone is worried, including the Chinese, who now face the prospect of an Islamic Emirate coming to a theatre near them. US military presence was a constraint on assorted terrorist groups and China benefited immensely.
Ghani’s meeting with Biden is meant to reassure the Afghans that while the Americans are leaving, they are not abandoning Afghanistan. What that means in practical terms is yet unclear, but both the administration and the US Congress have committed to providing financial support to keep the Afghan defence forces paid and fed for now. Memories of the collapse of the Najibullah government in 1992 because Soviet support ended are still fresh.
The Ghani-Abdullah appearance at the White House, while good optics and a minor psychological boost for Kabul, goes only so far. A real boost would be if the Pentagon figured out a way to continue providing air support to Afghan forces post departure. Officials are debating the logistics and costs of deploying US fighter jets and armed drones from nearby bases and aircraft carriers.
They are also trying to figure out the threshold that would trigger US air strikes. Would they intervene if Kabul — or, for that matter, Kandahar — were on the verge of falling? It’s no secret that Afghan forces are stretched and battered and the Afghan Air Force handcuffed by the fleet of US-supplied Black Hawk helicopters, which have become a liability.
Everyone, including the Pentagon’s own inspector general, agrees it was a mistake to phase out the Russian Mi-17s, which were better suited to Afghan conditions, easier to maintain and carried double the load of a Black Hawk. More importantly, Afghan maintenance crews could fix the Mi-17s, having worked on them since the 1970s. Those who have flown over the Hindu Kush in a fully loaded Russian helo, swear by its rugged reliability.
Back in 2009-13, the Pentagon, well aware of local conditions, bought more than 60 Russian helicopters for the Afghans. But then the US Congress intervened, mandating purchase of US equipment, which local crews can’t repair. They have to depend on thousands of private contractors who have either left or are in the process.
The ground situation is deteriorating fast as the Taliban creep towards provincial capitals. The attacks have intensified in brutality and frequency since Biden’s April announcement to withdraw all troops by September 11. The departure is proceeding ahead of schedule as the Afghan army struggles.
More than 50 districts have fallen to the Taliban since mid-April, taking the tally to 122 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts that are now under Taliban control. Ghani’s decision to sack his defence and interior ministers and the chief of army staff last week shows a desperate search for answers and the level of panic.
The Taliban are gaining in almost every part of the country, sometimes after fiercely fought battles and sometimes after surrender by Afghan forces arranged by local tribal leaders. This sweep is going on alongside targeted killings of journalists, especially women, to silence anyone who can tell a story. The ‘gains’ of the past years that everyone talks about protecting are already getting lost in the hail of bullets.
Pakistan’s foreign minister, of course, thinks peace would prevail if Ghani shows ‘flexibility’ — in other words, resigns — and the Afghans ‘move on’ instead of ‘scapegoating’ his poor country. Pakistan has neither sheltered nor armed the Taliban for the last 20 years, the minister claimed with a straight face in the now infamous TOLO interview last week.
P.S. No one can fight geography. But it’s Afghanistan’s curse to have Pakistan as a neighbour and face its relentless proxy war.
Ghani reportedly wanted to come by himself, but was overruled. Afghan unity is critical, but many leaders seem to resent Ghani more than the Taliban. The delegation will include three women to signal that rights of women and girls matter.
The Friday meeting is meant to highlight the ‘enduring partnership’ as the US military draws down and the Taliban thumb their noses at the peace agreement. The Pakistanis huff and puff, unable to decide if Osama bin Laden was a terrorist or a martyr, while trying to extract the best price from Washington.
Yes, the Americans are really leaving this time. Everyone is worried, including the Chinese, who now face the prospect of an Islamic Emirate coming to a theatre near them. US military presence was a constraint on assorted terrorist groups and China benefited immensely.
Ghani’s meeting with Biden is meant to reassure the Afghans that while the Americans are leaving, they are not abandoning Afghanistan. What that means in practical terms is yet unclear, but both the administration and the US Congress have committed to providing financial support to keep the Afghan defence forces paid and fed for now. Memories of the collapse of the Najibullah government in 1992 because Soviet support ended are still fresh.
The Ghani-Abdullah appearance at the White House, while good optics and a minor psychological boost for Kabul, goes only so far. A real boost would be if the Pentagon figured out a way to continue providing air support to Afghan forces post departure. Officials are debating the logistics and costs of deploying US fighter jets and armed drones from nearby bases and aircraft carriers.
They are also trying to figure out the threshold that would trigger US air strikes. Would they intervene if Kabul — or, for that matter, Kandahar — were on the verge of falling? It’s no secret that Afghan forces are stretched and battered and the Afghan Air Force handcuffed by the fleet of US-supplied Black Hawk helicopters, which have become a liability.
Everyone, including the Pentagon’s own inspector general, agrees it was a mistake to phase out the Russian Mi-17s, which were better suited to Afghan conditions, easier to maintain and carried double the load of a Black Hawk. More importantly, Afghan maintenance crews could fix the Mi-17s, having worked on them since the 1970s. Those who have flown over the Hindu Kush in a fully loaded Russian helo, swear by its rugged reliability.
Back in 2009-13, the Pentagon, well aware of local conditions, bought more than 60 Russian helicopters for the Afghans. But then the US Congress intervened, mandating purchase of US equipment, which local crews can’t repair. They have to depend on thousands of private contractors who have either left or are in the process.
The ground situation is deteriorating fast as the Taliban creep towards provincial capitals. The attacks have intensified in brutality and frequency since Biden’s April announcement to withdraw all troops by September 11. The departure is proceeding ahead of schedule as the Afghan army struggles.
More than 50 districts have fallen to the Taliban since mid-April, taking the tally to 122 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts that are now under Taliban control. Ghani’s decision to sack his defence and interior ministers and the chief of army staff last week shows a desperate search for answers and the level of panic.
The Taliban are gaining in almost every part of the country, sometimes after fiercely fought battles and sometimes after surrender by Afghan forces arranged by local tribal leaders. This sweep is going on alongside targeted killings of journalists, especially women, to silence anyone who can tell a story. The ‘gains’ of the past years that everyone talks about protecting are already getting lost in the hail of bullets.
Pakistan’s foreign minister, of course, thinks peace would prevail if Ghani shows ‘flexibility’ — in other words, resigns — and the Afghans ‘move on’ instead of ‘scapegoating’ his poor country. Pakistan has neither sheltered nor armed the Taliban for the last 20 years, the minister claimed with a straight face in the now infamous TOLO interview last week.
P.S. No one can fight geography. But it’s Afghanistan’s curse to have Pakistan as a neighbour and face its relentless proxy war.
( Originally published on Jun 22, 2021 )
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
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